What’s Behind Today’s Mortgage Rate Volatility?
If you’ve been keeping an eye on mortgage rates lately, you might feel like you’re on a roller coaster ride. One day rates are up; the next they dip down a bit. So, what’s driving this constant change? Let’s dive into just a few of the major reasons why we’re seeing so much volatility, and what it means for you. The Market’s Reaction to the Election A significant factor causing fluctuations in mortgage rates is the general reaction to the political landscape. Election seasons often bring uncertainty to financial markets, and this one is no different. Markets tend to respond not only to who won, but also to the economic policies they are expected to implement. And when it comes to what’s been happening with mortgage rates over the past couple of weeks, as the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) says: “. . . the primary reason interest rates have been on the rise pertains to the uncertainty surrounding the presidential election. Although the election is now complete, there continue to be growing concerns over budget deficits.” In the short term, this anticipation has caused a slight uptick in mortgage rates as the markets adjust and react. Additionally, factors like international tensions, supply chain disruptions, and trade policies can drive investor sentiment, causing them to seek safer assets like bonds, which can indirectly impact mortgage rates. Essentially, the more global or domestic uncertainty, the greater the chance that mortgage rates may shift. The Economy and the Federal Reserve Inflation and unemployment are two other big drivers of mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) has been working to bring inflation under control, and has been closely monitoring the economy as they do. And as long as inflation continues to moderate and the job market shows signs of maximum employment, the Fed will continue its plans to cut the Federal Funds Rate. Although the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, their decisions do have an impact, and typically a cut leads to a mortgage rates response. And in their November 6-7th meeting, the Fed had the data they needed to make another cut to the Federal Funds Rate. And while that decision was expected and much of the mortgage rate movement happened prior to that meeting, there was a slight dip in rates. What To Expect in the Coming Months As we look ahead, mortgage rates will respond to changes in the Fed’s policies and other economic indicators. The markets will likely remain in a wait-and-see mode, reacting to each new development. And, with the transition of a new administration comes an element of unpredictability. A recent article from The Mortgage Reports explains: “Today’s economic indicators come with mixed pressures on mortgage rates and we’re likely to be in for a good amount of volatility as markets adjust and respond to the election . . .” The best way to navigate this landscape is to have a team of real estate experts by your side. Professionals will help you understand what’s happening and can provide you with the guidance you need to make informed housing market decisions along the way. Bottom Line The takeaway? Today’s mortgage rate volatility is going to continue to be driven by economic factors and political changes. Now is the time to lean on experienced professionals. A trusted real estate agent and mortgage lender can help you navigate through it. And with the right guidance, you can make informed decisions.
Is Wall Street Really Buying All the Homes?
Let’s be real – buying a home right now is tough. You’re scrolling through listings, rushing to open houses, and maybe even losing out to more competitive offers. Somewhere along the way, you might’ve heard the reason it’s so hard to find a home is because big Wall Street investors are swooping in and snatching up everything in sight. But here’s the thing: that’s mostly a myth. While investors are part of the market, according to Redfin, they’re a relatively small part: Here’s what that means. Five out of every six homes are being purchased by everyday homebuyers like you – not big investors. So, before you get discouraged, let’s take a look at what’s really going on. You might be surprised to learn that Wall Street isn’t the competition you may think it is. Most Investors Are Small Mom-and-Pops Most investors aren’t the mega corporations you’ve probably heard about. In fact, many are your neighbors. A recent report from CoreLogic shows most investors are small, mom-and-pop types who own fewer than 10 properties. They aren’t massive companies with endless resources. Picture your neighbor who has another home they’re renting out or a vacation getaway. Only about 1% of the market is owned by large, mega investors with thousands of properties. The majority are still owned by individuals and smaller investors – not the Wall Street giants. Investor Purchases Are Declining Not only are most investors small, but overall investor purchases have been on the decline. As the same report from CoreLogic says: “Investors made 80,000 purchases in June 2024, compared with 112,000 in June 2023, and a nearly 50% percent drop from the high of 149,000 purchases in June 2021 . . .” And what does this mean going forward? CoreLogic goes on to point out this downward trend is expected to continue into 2025. So, if it seems like competition with investors is pushing you out of the market, it might help to know that investor activity is actually slowing down. Bottom Line The idea that Wall Street is buying up all the homes is largely a myth. Most investors are small ones, and the share of homes purchased by investors is declining – so you can take this one off your worry list. If you have questions about the housing market, let’s talk.
More Homes, Slower Price Growth – What It Means for You as a Buyer
There are more homes on the market right now than there have been in years – and that could be a game changer for you if you’re ready to buy. Let’s look at two reasons why. You Have More Options To Choose From An article from Realtor.com helps explain just how much the number of homes for sale has gone up this year: “There were 29.2% more homes actively for sale on a typical day in October compared with the same time in 2023, marking the twelfth consecutive month of annual inventory growth and the highest count since December 2019.” And while the number of homes on the market still isn’t quite back to where it was in the years leading up to the pandemic, this is definitely an improvement (see graph below): With more homes available for sale now, you have more options to choose from. As Hannah Jones, Senior Economic Research Analyst at Realtor.com, explains: “Though still lower than pre-pandemic, burgeoning home supply means buyers have more options . . .” That means you have a better chance of finding a house that meets your needs. It also means the buying process doesn’t have to feel quite as rushed, because more options on the market means you’ll likely face less competition from other buyers. Home Price Growth Is Slowing When there aren’t many homes for sale, buyers have to compete more fiercely for the ones that are available. That’s what happened a few years ago, and it’s what drove prices up so quickly. But now, the increasing number of homes on the market is causing home price growth to slow down (see graph below): In certain markets, the number of available homes has not only bounced back to normal, but has even surpassed pre-pandemic levels. In those areas, home price growth has slowed or stalled completely. As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, explains: “Generally speaking, housing markets where active inventory has returned to pre-pandemic 2019 levels have seen home price growth soften or even decline outright from their 2022 peak.” Slower or stalled price growth could give you a better chance of finding something within your budget. As Dr. Anju Vajja, Deputy Director at the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), says: “For the third consecutive month U.S. house prices showed little movement . . . relatively flat house prices may improve housing affordability.” But remember, inventory levels and home prices are going to vary by market. So, having a real estate agent who knows the local area can be a big advantage. They can help you understand the trends in your community, which can make a real difference in finding a home that fits your needs and budget. Bottom Line More housing options – and the slower home price growth they bring – can help you find and buy a home that works for your lifestyle and budget. So don’t hesitate to reach out if you want to talk about the growing number of choices you have right now.
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